Welsh double-take

In more 'polls that make you do a double take', the Conservative vote has gone through the roof in Wales.

To put that in perspective, five years ago Labour had a 30% lead in Wales, whereas today the Tories have a 10% lead. Labour have undergone a long, slow decline, but the big change in these last few months has been the evisceration of UKIP (remember, Wales voted to Leave) - to the benefit of the Conservatives.

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All in all, a more complete picture is now emerging. What we seem to be seeing is actually a 'perfect storm' for the Conservatives:

1) Labour decline. Labour have undergone a long steady decline over the last few years, but it's been particularly noticeable under Corbyn. They have lost ~1% per month over the last year. Some of this is going to the Lib Dems, who have steadly risen in the polls over the same timeframe, but I think some of it is just getting lost in the ether (people just not turning up to vote).

2) Brexit. Calling this election has, at first sight, dealt a death-blow to UKIP. Their vote share is crashing, and it's all going to the Tories. Just from the numbers, that's at least 2M votes that the old pro-EU government were missing out on. With the UK all set to leave the EU, most of their voters seem to not really see the point in staying with UKIP. It always was a bit of a one-man-band, to be fair, so with Farage gone and with all the big players abandoning ship it's not surprising that the wheels have come off.

3) Scotland. The IndyRef and subsequent surge in support for the SNP seems to have resulted in a realignment over the last year in favour of Unionism. With Scottish Labour in disarray, this has all been to the benefit of the Conservative and Unionist party. I think Ruth Davidson has been critical here: Scotland may be broadly pro-Remain, so having someone who was so prominent in the Stronger In campaign leading the Scottish Tories serves to blunt the SNP's pro-EU position as an electoral weapon.

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So, with the latest ComRes poll putting the Tories on 50% (!!!) as a result of all this, here's a thought: the history of this has yet to be written, but from here it really looks a lot like David Cameron's two referenda have, through a bizarre twist, led to the Tories being more popular than at any time in the last thirty years. Huh.